You hit a strong serve, the opponent floats their return, and you’re ready to drive. If you’re like me, you’re probably too excited to hit the ball as hard as you can to even think about where you should be placing your third.
In the words of my former middle school tennis coach, down the middle solves the riddle. Even against opponents who are not stacking on the return, hitting down the middle always has a chance of causing confusion. Its also the lowest part of the net, and gives your opponent almost no angle to a hit a winner on their fourth.
My theory on why going to the opponent’s left side player may be more effective than going to the right side player is based on the fact that it is significantly easier to “chicken wing” a righty who is playing the left side. I think hitting right hip (or against lefties, their left hip) with your third shot drive could be effective. This would be supported by the higher 4th error rate, although the sample size is still pretty low in this analysis. We will definitely keep an eye on how these numbers change over time.
Other related analyses that could be interesting:
• Is driving cross court really a bad idea?
• Should third shot drives be targeted to a player outside hip?
• Can third shot drive placement help get the fifth shot to a certain player?